The coal price fluctuates to some extent every January and February due to seasonal factors, but the fluctuation in 2010 as yet is sharper than the past years. The coal price increased considerably month-on-month in Jan, 2010, with average growth margin of 6%, while it started to fall sharply 15% in February, the biggest drop since 2005. Such sharp fluctuation in coal price in 2010 resulted mainly from the followings, i.e. the impact of coal resource integration in such provinces as Shanxi and Henan etc on coal supply; and significant increase in coal consumption caused by temperature drop across China in Jan., 2010, as well as February and March are the off-season for coal consumption as weather turns warm.
China’s Coal Output and Growth Rate, 2005-2010 (10 thousand tons)
Source: Wind; ResearchInChina
It is forecasted that the price of steam coal will touch the bottom and rebound in late Apr, 2010. As the energy-consuming industries enter production season after May, the demand for electric power will grow steadily, driving steam coal demand and price to rise. The sharp growth in housing construction area and new building constructed area will greatly promote the development of real estate–steel-coking coal chain in 2010. Coal output, as is predicted, will increase 12-18% yr-on-yr in 2010, and the effective supply will fall short of effective demand considering imbalanced structure of coal variety supply and demand as well as traffic bottleneck in the regions where the new output is added.
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