Calls urge bigger Bank of England cut - ResearchInChina

Date:2008-11-05liaoyan  Text Size:

THE Bank of England is still expected to cut interest rates by a half point tomorrow but the chances of a bigger cut are nearly one in three, with several large dealers now predicting a 100 basis point cut.

A Reuters poll taken on Monday and yesterday, following up from the usual pre-meeting Bank of England poll published last week, found that several large sterling market makers changed their call in the past few days to a 100-basis-point cut at tomorrow's meeting.

The Monetary Policy Committee, which slashed rates by 50 basis points to 4.50 percent on October 8 as part of an unprecedented global coordinated easing, has never cut interest rates by more than a half point since it was given policy independence in 1997. While all 62 economists polled forecast at least a half-point cut, the growing number of calls for a larger move reflects increasing market bets and intense selling of the British pound in recent days.

It also is stark evidence of just how quickly the outlook for the British economy has deteriorated recently, with most convinced that Britain is now in recession and many fearing it will be more severe than the last slump that ended 16 years ago.

"The risks are skewed towards a larger cut, particularly given that at these levels interest rates are still too high for current economic and financial conditions," said George Buckley, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank.

Buckley expects a half-point move but puts the probability of a bigger move at a significant 40 percent.

BNP Paribas, Bank of America, Citigroup, HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, National Australia Bank, SEB, KPMG and IHS Global Insight are forecasting a 100-basis-point cut, but many only came around to that view in the last few days.

The sudden urgency for an aggressive move from the Bank of England comes partly on the perception that the rates are too high compared with other nations.


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