Though the recent earthquake offshore of Japan has not caused substantial disruption to the global PV supply chain, industry observers are concerned that contract quotes for poly-Si could be affected as most companies typically negotiate pricing for the second quarter in March.

A poly-Si supply shortage has been ongoing at the spot market since the beginning of 2011. With Japan-based material plants expected to reduce output due to a power shortage in the country, the spot market could see even higher price volatility. Current poly-Si spot quotes range from US$70-90/kg depending on volume and business relations.

South Korea-based poly-Si suppliers quoted at US$68/kg for first-quarter contract orders. With a shortage in the spot market, second-quarter contract quotes will see at least flat growth, which also means a price decrease in the spot market is unlikely.

Contract prices reflect the spot market, and hence it is quite typical for poly-Si companies to manage supply to the spot market to gain leverage during contract negotiations.

Since the earthquake, poly-Si spot price has remained fairly stable, a signal that even speculators are taking a wait-and-see approach.

Spot price for 6-inch solar wafers is about US$3.70 a piece. Some China-based wafer makers are already quoting above US$3.70, and Taiwan-based players recently predicted that April quotes will approach US$3.80. Sino-America Silicon Products (SAS), however, indicated that there is a good chance spot quotes will stay below US$3.80.