China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) recently said during an interview that China's domestic capacity will be sufficient for all of the country's poly-Si demand in 2-3 years. Half of China's poly-Si supply was imported in 2010.

China's poly-Si production cost in 2010 was more than US$50/kg on average. China-based GCL-Poly has announced that 2011 poly-Si cost will fall to US$20/kg, comparable to major internal players.

According to NDRC, China's own poly-Si capacity was able to fulfill 10% of the country's demand in 2006. At the moment, China has an annual capacity of 70,000 tons and actual output of 45,000 tons, about half of its total demand.

China's strong demand for imported poly-Si has served to buoy international spot prices. Combined with hot money flowing from the China real estate market to the solar industry, particularly in the materials segment, poly-Si pricing will likely remain high until China is able to satisfy its poly-Si demand domestically.

Based on NDRC statistics, production of 1kg of poly-Si requires 180-200KW/h in electricity and production cost is over US$50/kg on average in China. Only three poly-Si makers in China are able to produce at costs comparable to international competitors.

GCL-Poly recently reported that it returned to profitability in 2010, netting HK$4 billion (US$513 million). The company also indicated that its poly-Si capacity will reach 46,000 tons in 2011 and production should come to 31,000 tons. Poly-Si cost will fall from US$22.5/kg to US$20/kg.