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China Machinery Industry Report (Investment Strategy), 2006-2007

Published: Dec/2006

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Each sub-industry of machinery is developing at different speed during the 11th Five-Year Plan period (2006-2010). It is predicted that the annual average growth rate of China machinery industry in this period will remain 12%-15% with profit increase of about 5%. As a matter of fact, the difficulty lies in profit increase rather than in sales and production. All of this indicates neutral advice on investment. ResearchInChina hereby recommend the following sub-industries: container lifting appliances industry, marine power industry, railway equipment industry, and CNC machine tool industry, etc.

The prosperity period of container lifting appliances industry will last up to the year of 2010 at least. The continuous growth of world trade and large scale of container ships drive the container port unloading capacity to be greatly improved, and accordingly, the great demands for container port crane keep growing. Meanwhile, the 11th Five-year Plan of China major ports shows: China port construction scale will be still at quite high level before the year of 2010. Being built in an earlier period, the equipments of many main Occident ports have dropped behind, so it is predicted that their reconstruction scale will remain the same trend in the coming several years. Therefore, ResearchInChina makes a conclusion that the prosperity period of port container lifting appliances industry will last to the year of 2010 at least.

In the forthcoming five years, the demands of marine diesel engines in China will multiple. The goal of China Shipping Industry Development Policy and the cross-year “531” plan put forward by China State Shipbuilding Corporation are as follows: to be listed as world top five shipbuilding manufacturers by 2007, world top three by 2010, and world top one by 2015. The industry policies provide historical opportunities for the development of China's domestic shipping industry and China-made diesel engines. Now that China shipping industry is rising and the policy of homemade ships should equip with homemade diesel engines is implemented, the future of Chinese diesel engines will see great development opportunities.

Railway equipment industry is now facing a brilliant prospect. Medium and Long Term Railway Network Plan declares the huge development opportunities of railways. From the year of 2005 to 2020, Ministry of Railways would double the current investment of RMB 50 billion each year to RMB 100-120 billion in railway construction. A rough estimation shows that the CAGR of acquisition capital for railway freight trains will be at 28% in the year of 2006 and 2007.

The CNC machine tool, with great opportunities, will outnumber the general ones in demands for the future. Downstream users of machine tool industry are of a great number, among which automobile and auto part industry consumes 40% of the total machine tools. Along with the implementation of macro-control policies and the growing cardinal number of machine tool, the investment peak into automobiles, motors, heavy electronic industry indicates a decline and so does the machine tool industry. It is predicted that the growth will be at around 15% in the year of 2006. However, it is promising for the CNC machine tool. The domestic market share (by sales revenue) of homemade CNC machine tools will be expected to climb from current 30% to more than 50% by the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan period.


Construction machinery industry hovers at the low end, which is in line with the predictions: it developed slowly first and then experienced a relatively rapid growth in 2005 and it will not come to life until the year of 2007. The sales revenue of construction machinery industry is estimated to increase by 5% and the profit will continue a decrease of 10% in 2006.



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