China's refined copper imports, the world's largest, slowed in October from this year's record pace and will probably decline in 2008 as domestic smelters ramp up production, underscoring concerns about a global surplus.

Refined copper and alloy imports fell 4.6 percent last month to 103,080 metric tons, compared with September, the Beijing- based customs office said today. Net imports next year may drop to 1.1 million tons from this year's 1.3 million tons, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of five analysts.

Lower Chinese imports may weigh on prices as the fastest- growing major economy accounted for almost all copper demand growth this year, according to the International Copper Study Group. A global surplus of the metal, used in wires and pipes, will more than double to 249,000 tons in 2008, it said Oct. 2.

"Chinese refined copper imports may fall further in the months ahead due to slower demand and rising domestic production," Li Rong, metals analyst at Great Wall Futures Co. in Shanghai, said by phone today.

Copper has fallen 25 percent since reaching a record $8,800 a ton on May 11 last year. The contract for delivery in three months traded at $6,566 a ton at 12:24 p.m. Shanghai time today.

China's copper buying has boosted prices more than fourfold in the past five years. Its imports of the metal and its alloys rose 88 percent from a year earlier to 1.3 million tons in the 10 months to Oct. 31, customs data showed. That takes no account of exports and beats 2005's record 1.28 million tons for the year.

Three of the five analysts surveyed this week forecast lower net imports of refined copper next year, while one predicted no change and another a small increase.

Rising Output

Government efforts to prevent the economy from overheating and curb the expansion of factories that are heavy polluters and energy consumers have not yet had much impact on production.

"Chinese production is expanding very fast," said Jiang Changwu, managing director at JCC Jinrui Futures Co., the brokerage arm of Jiangxi Copper Co., China's second-largest producer of the metal.

"Growth in demand may not be sustained because of the slumping U.S. housing sector and China's credit tightening may hobble end users," Jiang said.

China has raised interest rates five times this year as the economy has had three quarters of growth of more than 11 percent. Industrial output climbed 17.9 percent in October from a year earlier, after jumping 18.9 percent in September, the National Bureau of Statistics said Nov. 15.

China's output of copper cathodes, a finished form of the metal, may rise to 3.8 million tons in 2008, from an estimated record 3.4 million tons this year, said Shen Haihua, general manager of Shanghai Maike Dickson Investment Management Co.

Stockpiles of copper monitored by the London Metal Exchange rose to 182,700 tons yesterday, the highest level since March 23.