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 Inflation eases further, may have 'peaked'
 
CreateTime:2011-10-14     Source:shanghaidaily Editor:lixiang
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CHINA'S inflation eased somewhat in September, paving the way for a possible shift towards policies supportive of growth.

The Consumer Price Index, a main gauge of inflation, expanded 6.1 percent annually last month, the National Bureau of Statistics said this morning.

The figure was down from August's 6.2 percent and a 37-month high of 6.5 percent in July. However, food costs, a major force behind price rises, remained stubbornly high by jumping 13.4 percent, the same as in August.

The Producer Price Index, the factory gate measurement of inflation, cooled to 6.5 percent in September from 7.3 percent a month earlier.

"Consumer price inflation appears to have peaked," said Alaistair Chan, an economist at Moody's Analytics. "Headline inflation is expected to trend lower for the near to medium term, although core inflation will remain an issue."

Qu Hongbin, chief economist at HSBC, said that easing inflation may trigger a minor adjustment in macroeconomic policies in the last quarter of this year.

"We expect tightening policies will become more flexible. But it does not mean a complete reverse of the current prudent policy stance. The central bank may allow more liquidity in the market to rescue cash-strapped small firms," Qu said, adding the real estate sector can't be included in the possible policy changes.

However, Barclays Capital sang a different tune. Its economist Chang Jian said the People's Bank of China was unlikely to shift its anti-inflation bias before a clear downward trend in inflation has emerged.

In the first three quarters, China's inflation jumped 5.7 percent year-on-year, far exceeding the government target of keeping it under 4 percent.

To combat inflation, China has raised interest rates three times so far this year, along with six reserve requirement ratio hikes that required commercial banks to put aside a record 21.5 percent of funds as reserves.

Policymakers have become reluctant to launch more tightening measures after the second-quarter economic data showed that GDP growth in China had moderated to 9.5 percent, slower than 9.7 percent in the first three months and 10.4 percent last year.

Market estimates showed that China's growth may weaken further to around 9 percent in the third quarter. The bureau is set to unveil the latest growth figure next week.


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