JP Morgan: China 2012 GDP growth to stay at 8.2%

   Date:2012-01-18

On those highly-anticipated growth figures, many economists note the slowdown in GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year can be attributed to both domestic and external factors. Zhu Hai-bin, Chief China Economist of JP Morgan Chase, told our reporter Yin Hang that the bank expects China's economic growth will further slow in the first half of this year. But on the upside, he says the second half of 2012 will see a rebound - with full-year real economic growth to be maintained at 8.2 percent.

China’s rapid economic growth is putting on the brakes.

Zhu Haibin, Chief China Economist of JP Morgan Chase, attributes the economic slowdown to the sweeping European debt crisis and a consolidation in China’s housing market.

The fourth straight quarterly slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy adds to concerns that global growth is faltering, with the International Monetary Fund warning of near-zero growth in Europe and a "substantial" cut to its global forecast. Others still expect Europe to fall into recession this year, and the region’s woes to continue affecting export-reliant economies like China.

China’s export growth rose by the least in two years, at only 11.8 percent last December. Inflation eased to a 15-month low of 4.1 percent, bolstering the case for Premier Wen Jiabao to loosen policies.

China’s broadest measure of money supply, M2, was up 13.6 percent at the end of December from a year earlier, faster than the 12.7 percent rise at the end of November. The latest money supply and loan data suggest liquidity conditions have significantly improved.

Zhu says, JP Morgan expects China’s economic growth to witness marginal slowdown followed by a rebound in the second half of 2012.

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