CHINA'S shipbuilding industry may double its scale in the next four years on growth potential in sea transport and marine economy, and Shanghai is expected to play a big role toward meeting the goal.

By the end of 2015, the market size of shipbuilders and marine equipment makers may hit 1.2 trillion yuan (US$190 billion) with the value of exports touching US$80 billion, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said yesterday when it released a guideline of the 12th Five-Year Plan for the shipping industry.

Chinese shipyards may take up at least five spots among the world's top 10 shipbuilders and the country's 10 biggest domestic shipbuilders may contribute more than 70 percent of the total output, according to the guideline posted on the ministry's website.

Shanghai is expected to become the center of one of the three key shipbuilding and marine engineering manufacturing locations, further strengthening its position after the State Council announced in 2009 its aim of turning the city into an international shipping hub by 2020.

The Yangtze River Delta region where Shanghai is located, the Bohai Bay Delta and the Pearl River Delta regions will become the three key manufacturing sites for ships.

Industry observers, however, are cautious about the overall outlook for shipyards.

In February, new orders won by domestic shipyards sank 23 percent year on year to 1.29 million deadweight tons.

"The demand for new ships will stay weak for the next two to three years as global trade is still uncertain," said Qiu Shiliang, an analyst with China Galaxy Securities. "Many shipyards are drawing back their production capacity and the sluggish situation won't change in a short period of time."