Global and China L4 Autonomous Driving and Start-ups Report, 2021

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In April 2021, Waymo’s CEO and CFO left the company. In addition, the Chief Safety Officer, head of manufacturing and global supply and general manager of Laser Bear LiDAR business, head of Automotive Partnerships and Corporate Development have also resigned since late 2020.

Waymo’s L4 development model has been set back. Its efforts to develop L4 with the model of “refitted vehicles—road test data collection—trial operation” hit a bottleneck, while companies like Tesla, Mobileye and Momenta adopt the widely-accepted “shadow model” where the data collected by L2 mass-produced vehicles are used to train a L4 algorithm model.

Except for few companies like Waymo and Uber which perform worse than expected, L4 autonomous driving firms in other fields gain momentum. Favored by capital in 2021, they make big strikes in technology and cost reduction, making a thriving market. As the saying goes, a thousand sails pass by the wrecked ship, and ten thousand saplings shoot up beyond the withered tree.

L4 autonomous driving firms are in capital’s good graces.

During 2020-2021, the global L4 autonomous driving industry has seen a turning point: bellwethers such as Waymo and Cruise vie for more competitive edges in Robotaxi; Uber sold its autonomous driving business to Aurora and invested USD400 million in it; technology giants like Huawei and Baidu deploy dimension reduction application of L4 autonomous driving for commercialization; WeRide and Didi Woya each have raised hundreds of millions of US dollars in 2021.

Although several of its executives have left since 2021, Waymo still raised USD2.5 billion in a new round funding in June 2021. Moreover, GM Cruise has also raised USD2.75 billion in 2021. After bouncing several times, Origin, GM Cruise’s first autonomous robotaxi design, is projected to enter volume production in early 2023.

In 2021, L4 start-ups usher in a funding boom. TuSimple, a Chinese autonomous truck manufacturer listed its shares in the US, which took its market capitalization to more than USD10 billion. The sought-after company announced to secure orders for 6,500 units of its autonomous trucks. Its domestic peer PlusAI was listed on the New York Stock Exchange by way of special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). This signals L4 autonomous driving companies have been in the new phase of rapid development. There will be more L4 autonomous driving companies going public.

L4 1_副本.png

Cost reduction” and “dimension reduction application” bring development opportunities to L4 autonomous driving companies.

Too high cost has been an inevitable practical challenge in commercialization of L4 autonomous driving. The hardware devices for a L4 autonomous vehicle generally include: 6-12 cameras, 3-12 radars, 1-3 LiDARs, 2 GNSSs/IMUs and 2 computing platforms (including the redundant one). As the technology advances, the cost of hardware is on the decline.

On one estimate, the cost of hardware for a set of L4 autonomous driving system of Toyota is RMB40,000 or so. Wherein, the main front LiDAR costs the most, roughly RMB10,000 to RMB15,000; the combined cost of the two side LiDARs stands at RMB5,000 to RMB8,000; that of the 3 ECUs is RMB12,000 to RMB14,000. The dilution of software cost is accompanied by the rising sales.

L4 2_副本.png

In China, Baidu introduced Apollo Moon, its new-generation mass-produced Robotaxi in June 2021, with cost expected to be slashed to RMB480,000, a third of that of current L4 mass-produced autonomous models. The ARCFOX αT-refitted vehicle adopts the ANP-Robotaxi architecture, and packs 13 cameras, 1 LiDAR, 5 radars and Baidu's self-developed central computing platform with computing force up to 800TOPS.

In July 2021, GAC AION and Huawei launched the cooperative project AH8 model, their first co-developed large-sized intelligent full-electric SUV based on GAC GEP3.0 Chassis Platform and Huawei Computing and Communication Architecture (CCA). The L4 autonomous car is projected to be spawned in late 2023.

As costs go down, we predict RMB300,000 autonomous vehicles with L4 autonomy will come out in the next 2 or 3 years.

L4 3.png

At present, L4 autonomous driving technology has yet to mature. Multiple automakers and technology providers have started dimension reduction application. AVP tends to be a key L4 autonomous driving technology deployed on mass-produced vehicles. For example, starting from AVP, Baidu will progressively achieve driving automation of passenger cars in all scenarios.

In January 2021, Weltmeister W6, a Baidu AVP-enabled mass-produced L4 model, rolled off the assembly line. As the world’s first model of such kind, the car carries 5 cameras, 12 ultrasonic radars and Baidu's autonomous driving computing platform ACU. The AVP solution consists of just cameras and ultrasonic radars, making its cost available.

In July 2021, Baidu and Great Wall Motor built in-depth cooperation on AVP. They plan to equip WEY Mocha with Baidu AVP that is based on Apollo software algorithms and up to ASIL-B functional safety standard, enabling L4 autonomous parking within visual range. It is predicted that the new model is about to be launched on market in the second half of 2021.

In addition, the auto parts giant ZF also tries hard to deploy AVP, in hope of developing future-oriented autonomous driving technologies with AVP as a starting point. In April 2021, ZF first released its AVP technology which enables automated parking via CalmCar 360° surround view perception and ultrasonic radars; in June, ZF led a USD150 million C round financing for CalmCar. They have forged a strategic partnership to develop a cost-effective AVP system, and plan to use it in mass-produced models of OEMs in China in 2022.

L4 autonomous driving for commercial vehicles enters the phase of cross-scenario mass production and application.

The demission of John Krafcik, Google Waymo’s CEO, becomes a watershed in the industry. It indicates that it is hard to achieve commercial operation of L4 autonomous driving in real terms by depending on tests and verifications in ideal conditions. Given this, large companies have started developing multi-scenario application solutions to amass data and iterate algorithms in actual operating scenarios.

In the near future, L4 autonomous driving layout will target designated scenarios, especially shared mobility, trunk logistics, autonomous delivery, and (semi-) closed scenarios.

L4 autonomous driving providers are working hard on application of the technology in different scenarios. Examples include Baidu Apollo with technical expertise in Robotaxi, autonomous minibus and autonomous parking, and providers like Waymo and Pony.ai which turn to autonomous logistics and delivery from Robotaxi.

L4 4_副本.png

Waymo: by the end of 2020, Waymo has boasted a fleet of more than 600 Robotaxi. In 2021, Waymo plans to introduce a fleet of 100 Jaguar I-PACE autonomous vehicles equipped with the latest fifth-generation software and hardware.

In terms of autonomous commercial vehicles, following its in-depth cooperation with Volvo in 2020, Waymo partnered closely with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) to manufacture autonomous commercial trucks, and introduced Waymo Via trucking service tested on roads in two states of the US.

L4 5.png

Motional: in March 2020, Hyundai and Aptiv set up a joint venture, a L4/L5 autonomous vehicle developer that integrated the resources of NuTonomy. The founding of this joint venture noticeably quickened their pace of deploying autonomous driving.

In October 2020, Motional and Lyft announced the resumption of their self-driving mobility service in Las Vegas; in March 2021, Motional indicated it will select Ambarella CVflow? SoC family for its autonomous vehicles; in June 2021, Motional said it will launch nuPlan, an extended public dataset.

L4 6.png

Pony.ai: in February 2021, Pony.ai’s first Robotaxis with the latest system rolled off its standard production line; in April 2021, Pony.ai upgraded PonyPliot+ Robotaxi service in all aspects; in May 2021, the Robotaxi service was landed in Yizhuang, Beijing.

As for autonomous commercial vehicles, Pony.ai set up its Truck Division in 2020 and acquired its first autonomous truck test license issued by Guangzhou at the end of the year; in March 2021, it introduced its truck brand—PonyTron.

L4 7.png

Although the whole highly automated driving industry still faces a range of challenges such immature supply chain, very high cost, not enough safety, and unsound laws and regulations, and needs some time for commercial application in all scenarios, L4 autonomous driving technology is getting rapid upgrade and the overall cost is dropping, which makes the commercial use in designated scenarios an expectation.

Our Global and China L4 Autonomous Driving and Start-ups Report, 2021 highlights the following:
Autonomous driving industry (main technologies, status quo of autonomous driving test, investment and financing, policies, standards, etc.);
L4 autonomous driving market (size, competitive pattern, technology trends, etc.);
Development of L4 autonomous driving technologies (computing platform, high-precision positioning, etc.) in China (technical solutions of providers, mass production plans of OEMs, etc.);
Implementation of L4 autonomous driving (business models, main application scenarios (Robotaxi, autonomous delivery, etc.), etc.);
Main Chinese and foreign L4 autonomous driving technology providers (layout, application, etc.).

1 Overview of Autonomous Driving
1.1 Definition of Autonomous Driving
1.1.1 Definition (SAE)
1.1.2 Functions of Different Levels of Automated Driving
1.1.3 The Relationship between ODD and Automated Driving Levels
1.1.4 Larger ODD Comes with Higher Levels of Automated Driving
1.1.5 L4+ Map Fence
1.2 Main Autonomous Driving Technologies
1.2.1 Main Technologies
1.2.2 Perception
1.2.3 HD map
1.2.4 V2X
1.2.5 High Precision Positioning
1.2.6 Algorithms
1.2.7 Brake-by-wire Technology for L3/L4
1.3 Autonomous Driving Test
1.3.1 Construction of Major Foreign Autonomous Driving Test Sites
1.3.2 Autonomous Driving Test Projects in United States
1.3.3 Construction of Major Autonomous Driving Test Sites in China
1.3.4 Opening of Autonomous Driving Test Roads in Beijing and Shanghai
1.3.5 Autonomous Driving Test Mileage in California and Beijing, 2020
1.3.6 Autonomous Driving Test Mileage in California, 2020
1.3.7 Disengagement in Autonomous Driving Testing in California, 2020
1.3.8 Autonomous Driving Road Test Mileage in Beijing, 2020
1.3.9 Vehicle Models Tested in Autonomous Driving Test Fields in Beijing, 2020
1.3.10 Number of Autonomous Driving Road Test Companies in Shanghai
1.3.11 Autonomous Driving Test Mileage in Shanghai
1.4 Investment and Financing in Autonomous Driving
1.4.1 Scale of Investment and Financing in Autonomous Driving
1.4.2 Capital Favors Autonomous Driving
1.4.3 Financing in Autonomous Driving, 2021

2 L4 Autonomous Driving Market
2.1 Autonomous Driving Policies
2.1.1 Substantive Policies Promoting Global Autonomous Driving Industry 2.1.2 Autonomous Driving Policies in Major Foreign Countries (1)
2.1.3 Autonomous Driving Policies in Major Foreign Countries (2)
2.1.4 Autonomous Driving Policies in Major Foreign Countries (3)
2.1.5 Germany is about to Implement L4 Autonomous Driving Act
2.1.6 Development of Autonomous Driving Industry in China
2.1.7 China's Main Policies for Autonomous Driving
2.2 Autonomous Driving Standards
2.2.1 Autonomous Driving Standard Organizations
2.2.2 Grading Standards for Autonomous driving
2.2.3 Guidelines for Formulation of Intelligent Connected Vehicle Standards
2.2.4 ISO 22737, the First International Safety Standard for L4 Autonomous Driving System
2.3 L4 Autonomous Driving Market Size
2.3.1 Global L4 Autonomous Driving Market Size
2.3.2 China's L4 Autonomous Passenger Car Market Size
2.3.3 China's L4 Autonomous Commercial Vehicle Market Size
2.3.4 Installation of L4 Autonomous Driving by Segment in China
2.4 Competitive Pattern of L4 Autonomous Driving Industry
2.4.1 Major Players in Global L4 Autonomous Driving Market
2.4.2 Comparison of Major L4 Autonomous Driving Companies
2.5 Development Trends of L4 Autonomous Driving
2.5.1 The Perception Function for Autonomous Driving is Getting Improved
2.5.2 CVIS will Become a Key Way to Achieve High Levels of Autonomous Driving
2.5.3 L4 Autonomous Driving Technology will be First Implemented in Designated Scenarios

3 Development Course of L4 Autonomous Driving in China
3.1 Status Quo of L4 Autonomous Driving in China
3.1.1 Status Quo of L4 Autonomous Driving Technology in China
3.1.2 Work to Deploy Full-stack Solutions for Autonomous Driving
3.1.3 Make Continuous Breakthroughs in L4 Technology
3.1.4 Work to Deploy Smart Roads
3.2 Status Quo of High Performance Computing Platform for L4 Autonomous Driving
3.2.1 Factors to Consider in L4 Vehicle Computing Platform
3.2.2 Algorithms Become the Support of Autonomous Driving Technology
3.2.3 Typical L4 Computing System Architecture
3.2.4 Typical L4 Autonomous Driving Computing Platform
3.2.5 China's Competitiveness in Autonomous Driving Chips is Weak (1)
3.2.6 China's Competitiveness in Autonomous Driving Chips is Weak (2)
3.2.7 Providers in China are Working to Deploy Computing Platforms with Strong Computing Force (1)
3.2.8 Providers in China are Working to Deploy Computing Platforms with Strong Computing Force (2)
3.3 Status Quo of High Precision Positioning Technology in China
3.3.1 Requirements for High Precision Positioning for Autonomous Driving
3.3.2 Requirements for HD Maps for L4 Autonomous Driving (1)
3.3.3 Requirements for HD Maps for L4 Autonomous Driving (2)
3.3.4 Enduring Difficulties in Achieving Lane-level Positioning in China
3.3.5 Providers in China Work to Explore Multi-sensor Fusion Positioning Technology for Higher Precision Positioning
3.4 Development of L4 Technology of Providers in China
3.4.1 Providers in China Work to Deploy L4 Autonomous Driving Market Segments
3.4.2 Dimension Reduction Application Enables L4 Mass Production
3.4.3 L4 Passenger Car Solutions of Providers (1)
3.4.4 L4 Passenger Car Solutions of Providers (2)
3.4.5 Autonomous Minibus/Public Transit Solutions
3.4.6 Automated Parking Solutions
3.4.7 Autonomous Delivery Vehicle Solutions
3.4.8 Autonomous Truck Solutions
3.5 L4 Autonomous Driving Layout of OEMs in China
3.5.1 OEMs in China Already Work to Deploy L4 Autonomous Driving
3.5.2 Comparison of Typical L4 Solutions of OEMs (1)
3.5.3 Comparison of Typical L4 Solutions of OEMs (2)
3.5.4 Toyota L4 Autonomous Driving Solution (1)
3.5.5 Toyota L4 Autonomous Driving Solution (2)
3.5.6 Weltmeister L4 Autonomous Driving Solution
3.5.7 Hongqi L4 Autonomous Driving Solution
3.5.8 Yutong L4 Autonomous Driving Solution

4 Commercial Operation of L4 Autonomous Driving
4.1 Business Models
4.1.1 Implementation Models of L4 Autonomous Driving
4.1.2 Designated Scenarios for Commercial Application of L4 Autonomous Driving
4.1.3 Deployments of Major Companies in Commercial Operation of L4 Autonomous Driving
4.1.4 L4 Autonomous Driving Mass Production Timeline
4.1.5 Cross-field Cooperation Will Become the Main Theme of Commercial Development of Autonomous Driving
4.1.6 L4 Providers Will Work Toward Multi-scenario Layout (1)
4.1.7 L4 Providers Will Work Toward Multi-scenario Layout (2)
4.2 L4 Application Scenarios—Robotaxi
4.2.1 Market Potential
4.2.2 Main Players
4.2.3 Development History Inside and Outside China
4.2.4 Development Process Inside and Outside China
4.2.5 Large-scale Development in China
4.2.6 Dynamics of Major Companies in Cooperation
4.2.7 Business Models
4.2.8 Initial Exploration of Commercialization
4.3 L4 Application Scenarios—Autonomous Delivery
4.3.1 Market Potential
4.3.2 Industry Chain
4.3.3 Introduction to Autonomous Delivery Vehicle Products Deployed by Major Application Companies
4.3.4 Commercial Operation of Autonomous Delivery Vehicles Deployed by Major Application Companies
4.3.5 Layout Modes of Autonomous Delivery Vehicles of Major Application Companies
4.3.6 Autonomous Delivery Business Models
4.4 L4 Application Scenarios—Closed Scenarios
4.4.1 Autonomous Driving Market Potential
4.4.2 Layout of Major Autonomous Mining Truck Companies
4.4.3 Main Applications of Autonomous Trucks
4.4.4 Mine Autonomous Driving Business Model
4.4.5 Port Autonomous Driving Business Model
4.5 L4 Application Scenarios—Trunk Logistics
4.5.1 Large Replacement Space for Autonomous Driving in Trunk Logistics
4.5.2 Main Autonomous Driving Players in Trunk Logistics
4.5.3 Autonomous Driving Technology Providers and Heavy Truck Suppliers Cooperate to Deploy Trunk Logistics

5 Foreign L4 Autonomous Driving Start-ups
5.1 Waymo
5.1.1 Profile
5.1.2 Development Course
5.1.3 Financing
5.1.4 Autonomous Driving Business Layout
5.1.5 Autonomous Driving Technology
5.1.6 Computing Platform
5.1.7 Autonomous Driving System
5.1.8 Autonomous Driving Simulation System: Carcraft
5.1.9 L4 Autonomous Driving Application
5.1.10 Robotaxi Operation
5.1.11 Autonomous Truck Testing
5.1.12 Autonomous Driving Partners
5.2 GM Cruise
5.2.1 Profile
5.2.2 Financing
5.2.3 L4 Autonomous Vehicles
5.2.4 Deployments in Autonomous Driving for Shared Mobility
5.2.5 Open Source Visualization Software for Autonomous Driving
5.2.6 Acquired Voyage to Integrate Autonomous Driving Business
5.2.7 Voyage Autonomous Driving Technology
5.2.8 Voyage Autonomous Vehicles (1)
5.2.9 Voyage Autonomous Vehicles (2)
5.2.10 Voyage Robotaxi Business
5.3 ZMP
5.3.1 Profile
5.3.2 Main Products
5.3.3 RoboCar MiniVan
5.3.4 RoboCar MV 2
5.3.5 RoboCar Mini EV Bus
5.3.6 Single-seater Robot "RakuRo"
5.3.7 Expand Shared Mobility Business
5.4 Motional
5.4.1 Profile
5.4.2 Autonomous Driving Dataset
5.4.3 Autonomous Mobility Business
5.4.4 Dynamics in Cooperation
5.5 Argo AI
5.5.1 Profile
5.5.2 Autonomous Driving System
5.5.3 Autonomous Driving Test
5.5.4 Autonomous Driving Dataset: Argoverse
5.5.5 Fourth-generation Autonomous Prototype Car
5.5.6 Mass Production and Application
5.6 Mobileye
5.6.1 Launched L4 Autonomous Driving Solution: Mobileye Drive?
5.6.2 Mobileye Drive? Technology
5.6.3 Mobileye Drive? Architecture
5.7 Aurora
5.7.1 Profile
5.7.2 Financing
5.7.3 Autonomous Driving Technology
5.7.4 Autonomous Driving Test
5.7.5 L4 Autonomous Driving Layout
5.7.6 Acquired Uber's Autonomous Driving Business
5.7.7 ATG Technology Development Model
5.7.8 Milestones in Cooperation with OEMs
5.8 Zoox
5.8.1 Profile
5.8.2 Main Products: BOZ Concept Model
5.8.3 Main Technologies
5.8.4 Autonomous Driving Test
5.8.5 Robotaxi Business
5.9 AImotive
5.9.1 Profile
5.9.2 Development Course
5.9.3 Financing
5.9.4 Autonomous Driving Technology
5.9.5 aiDrive Autonomous Driving Software Stack
5.9.6 aiWare
5.9.7 Global Presence and Partners
5.10 Wayve
5.10.1 Profile
5.10.2 Autonomous Driving Solutions
5.10.3 Autonomous Vehicles
5.11 Valeo
5.11.1 Autonomous Driving Layout
5.11.2 Autonomous Vehicles
5.11.3 L4 Autonomous Driving Technology Tests
5.12 Navya
5.12.1 Operation of Autonomous Vehicles
5.12.2 Dynamics in Cooperation
5.13 Other
5.13.1 L4 Autonomous Driving Layout of Controlworks

6 Chinese L4 Autonomous Driving Startups
6.1 Baidu Apollo
6.1.1 Autonomous Driving Technology of Baidu Apollo
6.1.2 Baidu’s Development Strategy for L4 Autonomous Driving
6.1.3 Baidu Released Apollo Air Technology (1)
6.1.4 Baidu Released Apollo Air Technology (2)
6.1.5 Autonomous Driving Solution: Apollo Enterprise
6.1.6 Baidu Autonomous Driving Computing Platform
6.1.7 Baidu Autonomous Driving Computing Platform Product Route
6.1.8 Autonomous Mobility Services
6.1.9 The Latest Generation of Robotaxi: Apollo Moon
6.1.10 Robotaxi Business Model
6.1.11 Autonomous Fleet Management Platform
6.1.12 Autonomous Driving Kits for Autonomous Commercial Vehicle "MiniBus-Autonomous Shuttle Minibus"
6.1.13 Apollo Autonomous Driving Roadmap
6.1.14 Cooperation Plans of Baidu with Automakers
6.2 Pony.ai
6.2.1 Profile
6.2.2 Development Course
6.2.3 Financing Progress
6.2.4 Main Technologies
6.2.5 Autonomous Driving System Architecture
6.2.6 L4 Autonomous Driving System: PonyAlpha X
6.2.7 L4 Autonomous Vehicle Central Computing Platform
6.2.8 Robotaxi Layout
6.2.9 Autonomous Truck Layout
6.3 WeRide
6.3.1 Profile
6.3.2 Development Course
6.3.3 Financing Progress
6.3.4 Core Technologies
6.3.5 Autonomous Driving Platform: WeRide Master Platform (WMP) (1)
6.3.6 Autonomous Driving Platform: WeRide Master Platform (WMP) (2)
6.3.7 Robotaxi Business
6.3.8 Robotaxi Fleet Management System
6.3.9 Autonomous Minibus Business
6.4 AutoX
6.4.1 Profile
6.4.2 Development Course
6.4.3 Main Solutions
6.4.4 Panoramic Fusion Perception System: xFusion
6.4.5 Point-to-any-point Autonomous Driving System: xUrban
6.4.6 Fifth-generation Autonomous Driving System: AutoX Gen5
6.4.7 Autonomous Mobility Business
6.4.8 Autonomous Logistics Business
6.4.9 Autonomous Driving Partners
6.5 Momenta
6.5.1 Profile
6.5.2 Financing
6.5.3 Autonomous Driving Technology
6.5.4 Autonomous Driving Solutions (1)
6.5.5 Autonomous Driving Solutions (2)
6.5.6 L4 Autonomous Driving Strategy
6.5.7 Potential Application of L4 Autonomous Driving
6.5.8 L4 Autonomous Driving Application Plan
6.5.9 Robotaxi Application Plan
6.6 Didi Woya
6.6.1 Profile
6.6.2 Development Course of Didi Autonomous Driving
6.6.3 Autonomous Driving Test
6.6.4 Didi Released L4 Autonomous Driving Platform
6.6.5 Features of Gemini Autonomous Driving Platform
6.7 Huawei
6.7.1 Advanced Autonomous Driving Solution (ADS)
6.7.2 Software and Hardware Configuration Scheme for ADS
6.7.3 Advantages of ADS
6.7.4 Autonomous Driving Computing Platform: MDC
6.7.5 New-generation Computing Platform: MDC 810
6.8 Haomo.ai
6.8.1 Profile
6.8.2 Autonomous Driving Technology
6.8.3 Autonomous Driving Platform
6.8.4 Autonomous Driving System
6.8.5 Mass Production of L4 Autonomous Driving
6.8.6 Autonomous Driving Plan
6.8.7 Main Partners
6.9 DeepBlue Technology
6.9.1 Profile
6.9.2 Main Products
6.9.3 Panda Bus
6.9.4 Features of Intelligent Bus System
6.10 DeepRoute.ai
6.10.1 Profile
6.10.2 L4 Autonomous Driving Solutions
6.10.3 Autonomous Driving Business
6.11 Allride.ai
6.11.1 Profile
6.11.2 Development Course
6.11.3 Autonomous Driving Technology
6.11.4 5G AI Next-generation Autonomous Driving Strategy
6.11.5 L4 Autonomous Vehicles
6.12 Holomatic Technology
6.12.1 Profile
6.12.2 Development Course
6.12.3 Financing Progress
6.12.4 Main Products
6.12.5 L4 Automated Valet Parking Solution: HoloParking
6.12.6 Security Verification Platform: HoloX
6.13 Uisee Technology
6.13.1 Profile
6.13.2 Development Course
6.13.3 Financing Progress
6.13.4 Products and Solutions
6.13.5 Autonomous Driving Solutions
6.13.6 U-Drive Intelligent Driving System
6.13.7 Commercial Application

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